Well-known analyst on the South Caucasus Thomas de Waal is convinced that Azerbaijan was the first to launch hostilities on the Artsakh-Azerbaijani line of contact, as Armenia has no motive to start a war. As reported by “Armenpress”, Waal said this in an interview with “Ahval” agency.
According to him, there is no reason for Armenia to kickstart another bout of conflict with Azerbaijan.
“Basically, Armenians won the war of the 1990s, they have all the territory they want,” de Waal said. “Their incentive is to normalize the status quo.”
“For various reasons, Azerbaijan calculates that military action will win it something,” he added.
“The Armenian side won the war in the 1990s, they have the territory they want. “Their motive is to regulate the status quo,” Waal said.
Thomas de Waal added that for several reasons, Azerbaijan believes that hostilities will bring it victory.